Alondras x Gran Pena Betting tips for December 14 in Spain Tercera Group 1
| 📅 14/12/2025 11:00 |
 Alondras1.80 |
X 3.30 |
Gran Pena  4.00 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Alondras x Gran Pena:
🔮 Alondras wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Alondras, you can win up to $900.00!
The main points for the tip for Alondras x Gran Pena:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Alondras in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-260.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Gran Pena in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $325.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Gran Pena scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Alondras x Gran Pena, with Alondras as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 road matches, Gran Pena has not lost any of them.
Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Alondras x Gran Pena?
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Analysis from Alondras x Gran Pena for the Spain Tercera Group 1 – 14 of December
🏟️ Alondras X Gran Pena – Spain Tercera Group 1
📅 14 of December, 2025 – 11:00
🔵 Alondras – Winning probability: 64.99% | Fair line: 1.54
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 19.39% | Fair line: 5.16
🔴 Gran Pena – Winning probability: 15.61% | Fair line: 6.4
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Alondras
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
When the best bet on Alondras x Gran Pena is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1452657 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Alondras x Gran Pena
Is it a good idea to bet on Alondras?
🔵 Alondras: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 64.99% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 650 times – having a profit of $520.00;
- And would lose other 350 times – having a loss of -$350.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$170.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 19.39% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $437.00;
- And would lose other 810 times – losing -$810.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$373.00.
Should you bet on Gran Pena?
🔴 Gran Pena: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 15.61% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 160 times – this would give you a profit of $480.00
- And would lose other 840 times – having a loss of -$840.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$360.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Alondras x Gran Pena
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Alondras
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Alondras x Gran Pena
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Alondras, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Alondras.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Alondras.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Alondras x Gran Pena
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
