Atletico Madrid x Valencia Betting tips for December 13 in Spain La Liga

Our betting tip for Atletico Madrid x Valencia, Saturday, 13/12/2025

📅 13/12/2025 13:00

Atletico Madrid 1.28

X 5.35

Valencia 10.50

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Atletico Madrid x Valencia:

🔮 Atletico Madrid wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Atletico Madrid, you can win up to $640.00!

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Important information for your tip for Atletico Madrid x Valencia:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Atletico Madrid in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $250.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Valencia in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-228.0.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Atletico Madrid scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Valencia, Atletico Madrid scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Valencia conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Atletico Madrid is good playing home: it has 6 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 Atletico Madrid has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Valencia.

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Atletico Madrid vs Valencia?

⚽ Atletico Madrid comes fully prepared for this match, even playing at Riyadh Air Metropolitano Stadium, which is not their usual home ground. In the last 5 home games, they scored 13 goals and conceded only 3, with a perfect winning record (5/5). Additionally, their ball possession average is high (58%) and they create many chances (17 shots per game), showing clear dominance. Meanwhile, Valencia has been showing instability and recent difficulties both at home and away, with fewer goals scored and more conceded in recent away matches.

📈 In the La Liga 2025-26 table, Atletico is in fourth place with 35 points after 18 matches and is motivated by a recent important victory. Valencia is experiencing turmoil within the squad and among fans, plus an early elimination from the Copa del Rey that could affect team morale.

📰 News supports this analysis: Atletico recently strengthened their attack with Julián Álvarez to maintain offensive strength while progressing in competitions; Valencia faces serious internal problems such as squad changes and key injuries. This is likely to favor Atletico even more in this match.

Analyzing the median odds from betting sites (1.28 for Atletico win; 5.35 for draw; 10.5 for Valencia win), we get approximate normalized implied probabilities: Atletico win ~72%, Draw ~17%, Valencia win ~11%. Considering the offensive/defensive stats of both teams and the off-field news scenario, these probabilities seem fair.

The Bets Kenya model suggests very low odds for the home team win (~1.12), indicating a very high probability (>89%), but it overestimates the odds for a draw (~15) and away win (~22), underestimating their actual chances given recent team stats.

Evaluating the expected value of the final odds offered by the bookmakers (1.285 / 5 / 11), betting on Atleticos victory has a significant positive expected value (+14%), confirming it as the best bet based on our combined statistical data and current team context.

Conclusion: I fully agree with the bookmakers suggestion that strongly favors Atletico Madrid — even playing away from their traditional stadium — due to the demonstrated technical superiority in recent numbers combined with internal stability despite Valencias difficulties.
Betting on Atleticos win offers a good expected value (+14%) while draws or away wins do not present financial attractiveness at this moment.
Good luck! 🍀

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Atletico Madrid x Valencia?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Atletico Madrid x Valencia, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Atletico Madrid x Valencia for the Spain La Liga – 13 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Atletico Madrid and Valencia.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1451823 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on Atletico Madrid x Valencia

Atlético Madrid: Atlético Madrid, still led by Diego Simeone, is in fourth place on the La Liga 2025-26 table with 35 points after 18 matches, having just secured a 2-1 victory over Real Sociedad thanks to a late goal from forward Ángel Correa, and maintaining their long-time goalkeeper Jan Oblak in good form after a brief bout of flu; the team is dealing with captain Kokes suspension for the next home game against Sevilla and strengthened their squad this winter with the loan signing of Argentine forward Julián Álvarez from Manchester City, a strategy to boost offensive power as they advance to the Copa del Rey quarter-finals, where they will face Athletic Bilbao later this week.

Valencia CF: Valencia CF is going through a turbulent period marked by squad instability and fan dissatisfaction; recent reports indicate that the teams roster has been significantly changed, with several players leaving and the rest of the squad “leaving half of Mestalla behind” as the club reshuffles its lineup, while coach Marcelinos team suffered a disappointing elimination from the Copa del Rey after losing to Sporting, leading to criticism from sporting director Carlos Corberán for low attendance at the Vallecas game and concerns about supporter engagement; additionally, defender César Tárrega drew attention by scoring an own goal against Sevilla, and the club continues to deal with injuries to key figures like former player Luis Rubiales, along with ongoing speculation about potential signings for the upcoming transfer window.

Table analysis for the match between Atletico Madrid x Valencia

Atlético Madrid: Atlético Madrid is in 4th place with 31 points, in the Champions League qualification zone. The gap to 3rd place is just 4 points, keeping alive the dream of climbing the table and securing a direct spot in the main European competition. A victory against Valencia, which is well below in the standings, is crucial to maintain pressure on immediate rivals and increase the lead over those behind. Therefore, this game is of high importance for Atlético to establish itself among the leaders and achieve the goal of competing in the Champions League.

Valencia: Valencia is in 16th place with 15 points, just one point above the 17th position, which is in the relegation zone, and has a negative goal difference. The team is still in the risk zone and urgently needs points to move away from relegation. Facing a top-table opponent is a challenge but very important to try to turn the game around and improve its situation in the fight against relegation. Therefore, this match is crucial for Valencia to stay in the leagues top tier.

Summary: This is an important game for both teams: Atlético Madrid is seeking to solidify its position in the Champions League zone, while Valencia fights to escape relegation and secure its stay in the first division. A duel with a lot of pressure that can set different directions for both teams.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Atletico Madrid x Valencia

Is it a good idea to bet on Atletico Madrid?

🔵 Atletico Madrid: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 89.02% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.28. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 890 times – profiting $249.20;
• And would lose other 110 times – losing -$110.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$139.20.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 6.52%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.35. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 70 times – this would give you a profit of $304.50
• And would lose other 930 times – losing -$930.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$625.50.

Is it worth betting on Valencia?

🔴 Valencia: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 4.46% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 10.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 40 times – having a profit of $380.00;
• And would lose other 960 times – having a loss of -$960.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$580.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atletico Madrid x Valencia

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Atletico Madrid
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atletico Madrid x Valencia

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.25 Atletico Madrid, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.5 Atletico Madrid.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.5 Valencia.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atletico Madrid x Valencia

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.