Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin Betting tips for November 11 in Colombia Primera A

Our betting tip for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin, Monday, 11/11/2024

📅 11/11/2024 21:10

Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.92

X 3.36

Independiente Medellin 3.75

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin

The main points for the tip for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Atletico Nacional Medellin in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-10.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Independiente Medellin in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $110.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Atletico Nacional Medellin scored at least 1.0 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Independiente Medellin, Atletico Nacional Medellin scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Independiente Medellin conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin for the Colombia Primera A – 11 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Atletico Nacional Medellin and Independiente Medellin.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1220160 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin

Is betting on Atletico Nacional Medellin worth it?

🔵 Atletico Nacional Medellin: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 47.7%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.92. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 480 times – having a profit of $441.60;
• And would lose other 520 times – losing -$520.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$78.40. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 27.2% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.36. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 270 times – this would give you a profit of $637.20
• And would lose other 730 times – losing -$730.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$92.80.

Is it worth betting on Independiente Medellin?

🔴 Independiente Medellin: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.1% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $687.50;
• And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$62.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Atletico Nacional Medellin
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Atletico Nacional Medellin, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Atletico Nacional Medellin. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atletico Nacional Medellin x Independiente Medellin

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.