Avenida x Gremio Betting tips for January 11 in Brazil Campeonato Gaucho

Our betting tip for Avenida x Gremio, Sunday, 11/1/2026

📅 11/1/2026 00:00

Avenida 5.25

X 3.60

Gremio 1.55

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Avenida x Gremio:

🔮 Gremio wins the match
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Some important points for the tip for Avenida x Gremio:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Avenida in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $45.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Gremio in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-325.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Avenida scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Gremio scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Gremio matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Avenida conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Avenida conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Gremio.

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Avenida vs Gremio:

Lets analyze the match between Avenida and Grêmio at the Eucaliptos Stadium, which is a historic stadium in Porto Alegre but not the usual home ground for Avenida, potentially affecting the advantage of playing “at home”.

📈 In terms of recent performance, Avenida has shown strength playing at home with 2 wins and no losses in their last 5 home games, averaging 2 goals per game and conceding only 1. Grêmio, on the other hand, has a consistent attack with an average of 2 goals per away game but concedes more goals (average of 2), also taking more shots (14 vs 10 for Avenida) and possessing the ball more (48% vs 40%). This indicates Grêmio controls more of the game even when away.

📰 Recent news reports indicate Avenida maintains administrative stability and bets on continuity to grow in the championship. Grêmio faces some key injuries like Monsalve and Braithwaite but also brings offensive reinforcements like Tetê. This fluctuation could impact the visiting teams performance.

Analyzing the median odds from bookmakers: Avenidas victory is priced at about 5.25 (implied probability ~19%), a draw at 3.6 (~28%), and Grêmios win at only 1.55 (~65%). After normalization to adjust the house margin, the approximate fair probabilities are: Avenida ~18%, draw ~30%, Grêmio ~52%.

However, considering the balanced offensive statistics but taking into account that the Eucaliptos Stadium is not truly “home” for Avenida + injuries in Grêmio + dominance in shots/possession by the visitor + recent unbeaten home record for Avenida, I would slightly adjust the probabilities to something close to:

• Avenida win: ~22% (slightly higher due to local motivation)
• Draw: ~28% (a possible result given Avenidas solid defense)
• Grêmio win: ~50% (clear favorite but not as dominant as odds suggest)

Thus, the fair odds would be:

• Avenida: around @4.5
• Draw: around @3.6
• Grêmio: around @2.0

Using the final odds to analyze the expected value:

• Avenida EV negative (-68%) according to Clube da Aposta model – agree because the odds are too high compared to the realistic probability.
• Draw EV negative (-34%) – also seems fair given defensive balance.
• Grêmio EV positive (+23%) according to the model – makes sense as the preferred bet since they are strong favorites despite injuries.

Suggestion:
Betting on Grêmios victory appears to be a bet with a positive expected value (>5%), despite injuries they have superior quality and statistical dominance in recent matches; betting on Avenida or a draw does not offer enough value at current odds.

“The classic promises excitement! Despite the physical difficulties faced by the Gaucho Tricolor 🩹⚽️, their technical superiority should prevail against a brave Avenida playing outside their true home.”

Looking for another bookie to bet on Avenida x Gremio?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Avenida x Gremio, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Avenida x Gremio for the Brazil Campeonato Gaucho – 11 of January

Latest news on the match between Avenida and Gremio

Avenida: Avenida, the Santa Cruz do Sul club that completes its fourth consecutive season in the top tier of the Gaúcho Championship in 2026, keeps the same coach and bets on management continuity to achieve bigger goals, including returning to the national elite and advancing as much as possible in the Copa do Brasil and the Copa Sul‑Sudeste, all within a budget of R$ 39 million; internally, Fabio Pizzamiglio was re-elected president and Luis Carlos Bianchi took over as vice-president of football, while the team already played match 2 against Caxias on January 14 and is preparing for the Grêmio debut classic, scheduled for January 10, with Avenida as the initial opponent of the season.

Grêmio: Grêmio is experiencing an intense period of activity in 2026, starting with ankle surgery for Colombian midfielder Monsalve, who will be out of the Gaúcho, while the club announces the renewal of goalkeeper Gabriel Grandos contract and the termination of defender Jemerson; at the same time, the return of midfielder Arthur is close, after negotiations to bring him back to Tricolor, and striker Tetê is about to be officially announced, coming from Panathinaikos to strengthen Luís Castros attack, who also deals with the absence of Villasanti and Braithwaite, both injured with expected returns only in March; additionally, Grêmio received a proposal to hire Bárbara Fonseca, the womens football director of Cruzeiro, to manage the clubs womens category.

Brazil Campeonato Gaucho table analysis for Avenida x Gremio

Avenida: The match marks the start of the group stage of the 2026 Gaúcho Championship, in Group A. Avenida is among the teams competing for qualification to the playoffs, sharing their group with 5 other teams. Since the competition is in its early stages, every point gained is crucial to secure a good position and avoid relegation zone, which also exists in this group. Therefore, winning the debut is vital to build good momentum in the fight for a playoff spot. As a traditional local team, Avenida may feel pressure to assert itself right from the first round.

Grêmio: Grêmio competes in Group B, so it is not in the same group as Avenida and does not directly compete in the same qualification phase. In terms of the championship, both are in the same division but in different groups, so the match is a friendly or unofficial game under the common regulation of the phases, not affecting the tournament points. Grêmio, a historically prominent club, enters to maintain form and seek rhythm for official championship matches. The pressure is low since the match does not directly impact Grêmios classification in Group B.

Summary: The importance of the match for Avenida is high, as it marks the start of the competition and the opportunity to position well in the fight for playoff spots in Group A. For Grêmio, being in a different group, the game has low or preparatory importance, with no direct impact on classification. Overall, the match is of medium to high importance for the home club Avenida and low for the visiting team Grêmio.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Avenida x Gremio

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Avenida and Gremio.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1460547 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Should you bet on Avenida?

🔵 Avenida: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 5.75% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 60 times – this would give you a profit of $255.00
• And would lose other 940 times – having a loss of -$940.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$685.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 17.84%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 180 times – having a profit of $468.00;
• And would have lost other 820 times – with a loss of -$820.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$352.00.

Should you bet on Gremio?

🔴 Gremio: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 76.42% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.55. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 760 times – this would give you a profit of $418.00
• And would lose other 240 times – losing -$240.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$178.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Avenida x Gremio

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Avenida
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Avenida x Gremio

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Avenida and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +1.0 Avenida.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +1.0 Avenida.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Avenida x Gremio

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 1.00, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.