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Home Β» Predictions Β» Others Β» Buxton x Southport Betting tips for November 25 in England National League North
Saturday, 25 November 2023, 00h00 England National League North
Buxton Buxton
PREDICTION No tip
Southport Southport
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Buxton x Southport Betting tips for November 25 in England National League North

Our betting tip for Buxton x Southport, Saturday, 25/11/2023
πŸ“… 25/11/2023
15:00
Buxton Buxton
1.80
X
3.46
Southport Southport
3.68

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Buxton x Southport:

πŸ‘Ž Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Buxton x Southport

The main points for the tip for Buxton x Southport:

πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Buxton in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $20.0.
πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Southport in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $90.0.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 6 matches as the home team, Buxton scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 6 Buxton matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 7 matches as the home team, Buxton conceded at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 7 matches as the away team, Southport conceded at least 1 goal(s).

πŸ“Š Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Buxton x Southport

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Summary

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Analysis from Buxton x Southport for the England National League North – 25 of November

🏟️ Buxton X Southport – England National League North
πŸ“… 25 of November, 2023 – 15:00
πŸ”΅ Buxton – Winning probability: 55.23% | Fair line: 1.81
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 24.94% | Fair line: 4.01
πŸ”΄ Southport – Winning probability: 19.83% | Fair line: 5.04
βš– Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Buxton
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks

When the best bet on Buxton x Southport is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1025263 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Buxton x Southport

Is it worth betting on Buxton?

πŸ”΅ Buxton: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 55.23% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 550 times – having a profit of $440.00;
  • And would lose other 450 times – losing -$450.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just πŸ’°$10.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it worth betting on draw?

βšͺ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.94%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.46. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 250 times – profiting $615.00;
  • And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of πŸ’°-$135.00.

Is it worth betting on Southport?

πŸ”΄ Southport: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 19.83% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.68. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 200 times – this would give you a profit of $536.00
  • And would have lost other 800 times – with a loss of -$800.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$264.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Buxton x Southport

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

βš– Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Buxton
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Buxton x Southport

βš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Buxton and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Buxton.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Southport.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Buxton x Southport

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.50 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves