Calamonte x At. Pueblonuevo Betting tips for September 29 in Spain Tercera Group 14
| 📅 29/9/2024 07:00 |
 Calamonte2.20 |
X 3.10 |
At. Pueblonuevo  2.96 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Calamonte x At. Pueblonuevo:
👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Calamonte x At. Pueblonuevo
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Important information for your tip for Calamonte x At. Pueblonuevo: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Calamonte in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. |
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Analysis from Calamonte x At. Pueblonuevo for the Spain Tercera Group 14 – 29 of September
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🏟️ Calamonte X At. Pueblonuevo – Spain Tercera Group 14 |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Calamonte x At. Pueblonuevo right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1190630 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Calamonte x At. Pueblonuevo
Is it a good idea to bet on Calamonte?
🔵 Calamonte: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 41.38% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 410 times – this would give you a profit of $492.00
- And would lose other 590 times – having a loss of -$590.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$98.00.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 26.74% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 270 times – profiting $567.00;
- And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$163.00.
Is it worth betting on At. Pueblonuevo?
🔴 At. Pueblonuevo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.87% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.96. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $627.20
- And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$52.80.
Handicaps analysis for the match Calamonte x At. Pueblonuevo
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Calamonte
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Calamonte x At. Pueblonuevo
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Calamonte and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Calamonte.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 At. Pueblonuevo.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Calamonte x At. Pueblonuevo
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
