CD Real Sociedad x Juticalpa Betting tips for October 5 in Honduras Liga Nacional

Our betting tip for CD Real Sociedad x Juticalpa, Saturday, 5/10/2024

📅 5/10/2024 22:30

CD Real Sociedad 2.00

X 3.25

Juticalpa 3.40

Our algorithm has selected this tip for CD Real Sociedad x Juticalpa:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for CD Real Sociedad x Juticalpa

The main points for the tip for CD Real Sociedad x Juticalpa: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Juticalpa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-67.0. 👉 CD Real Sociedad did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 3 CD Real Sociedad matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between CD Real Sociedad x Juticalpa, with CD Real Sociedad as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Juticalpa conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from CD Real Sociedad x Juticalpa for the Honduras Liga Nacional – 5 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for CD Real Sociedad x Juticalpa right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1194677 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for CD Real Sociedad x Juticalpa

Is betting on CD Real Sociedad worth it?

🔵 CD Real Sociedad: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 63.73% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 640 times – this would give you a profit of $640.00
• And would lose other 360 times – losing -$360.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$280.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 21.64% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 220 times – this would give you a profit of $495.00
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$285.00.

Is it worth betting on Juticalpa?

🔴 Juticalpa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 14.62% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 150 times – profiting $360.00;
• And would lose other 850 times – losing -$850.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$490.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match CD Real Sociedad x Juticalpa

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 CD Real Sociedad
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for CD Real Sociedad x Juticalpa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 CD Real Sociedad and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 CD Real Sociedad.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 CD Real Sociedad.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for CD Real Sociedad x Juticalpa

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.