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Home ยป Predictions ยป Others ยป CD Tarancon x CD Cazalegas Betting tips for November 25 in Spain Tercera Group 18
Saturday, 25 November 2023, 00h00 Spain Tercera Group 18
CD Tarancon CD Tarancon
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 30% 1 X 2
CD Cazalegas CD Cazalegas
ODD: @3.2 Don't miss this prediction! BET NOW Don't miss this prediction!

CD Tarancon x CD Cazalegas Betting tips for November 25 in Spain Tercera Group 18

Our betting tip for CD Tarancon x CD Cazalegas, Saturday, 25/11/2023
๐Ÿ“… 25/11/2023
15:30
CD Tarancon CD Tarancon
2.10
X
3.20
CD Cazalegas CD Cazalegas
3.10

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for CD Tarancon x CD Cazalegas:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Tied Match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1600.00!

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Some important points for the tip for CD Tarancon x CD Cazalegas:

๐Ÿ‘‰ CD Cazalegas did not concede a goal in the last 4 matches as away team.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 3 matches as the away team, CD Cazalegas scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 4 CD Tarancon matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 4 road matches, CD Cazalegas has not lost any of them.

๐Ÿ“Š Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for CD Tarancon x CD Cazalegas

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Summary

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Analysis from CD Tarancon x CD Cazalegas for the Spain Tercera Group 18 – 25 of November

๐ŸŸ๏ธ CD Tarancon X CD Cazalegas – Spain Tercera Group 18
๐Ÿ“… 25 of November, 2023 – 15:30
๐Ÿ”ต CD Tarancon – Winning probability: 35.38% | Fair line: 2.83
โšช Tied game – Probability of tied match: 33.68% | Fair line: 2.97
๐Ÿ”ด CD Cazalegas – Winning probability: 30.94% | Fair line: 3.23
โš– Handicap 1×2: -0.5 CD Tarancon
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for CD Tarancon x CD Cazalegas right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1025263 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for CD Tarancon x CD Cazalegas

Should you bet on CD Tarancon?

๐Ÿ”ต CD Tarancon: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 35.38% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 350 times – profiting $385.00;
  • And would lose other 650 times – losing -$650.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$265.00.

Should you bet on draw?

โšช draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 33.68%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 340 times – having a profit of $748.00;
  • And would lose other 660 times – having a loss of -$660.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$88.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on CD Cazalegas?

๐Ÿ”ด CD Cazalegas: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.94% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 310 times – having a profit of $651.00;
  • And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$39.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match CD Tarancon x CD Cazalegas

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

โš– Handicap 1×2: -0.5 CD Tarancon
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for CD Tarancon x CD Cazalegas

โš– Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 CD Tarancon, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 CD Tarancon.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 CD Tarancon.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for CD Tarancon x CD Cazalegas

โšฝ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves