Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso Betting tips for November 30 in Uruguay Clausura

Our betting tip for Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso, Saturday, 30/11/2024

📅 30/11/2024 20:00

Cerro Largo 1.70

X 3.35

Club Atletico Progreso 5.00

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso:

🔮 Cerro Largo wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Cerro Largo, you can win up to $850.00!

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The main points for the tip for Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Cerro Largo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $255.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Club Atletico Progreso in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 Cerro Largo did not concede a goal in the last 6 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso, with Cerro Largo as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Club Atletico Progreso conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Cerro Largo has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Club Atletico Progreso playing at home. 👉 It is not a good time for Club Atletico Progreso as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso for the Uruguay Clausura – 30 of November

When the best bet on Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1229690 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso

Is betting on Cerro Largo worth it?

🔵 Cerro Largo: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 58.34% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 580 times – profiting $406.00;
• And would lose other 420 times – losing -$420.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$14.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.21%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.35. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 300 times – profiting $705.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$5.00.

Should you bet on Club Atletico Progreso?

🔴 Club Atletico Progreso: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.46% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 110 times – having a profit of $440.00;
• And would lose other 890 times – having a loss of -$890.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$450.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Cerro Largo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Cerro Largo and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Cerro Largo.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cerro Largo x Club Atletico Progreso

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.