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Home Β» Predictions Β» Others Β» Cerro Porteno x Nacional Asuncion Betting tips for February 1 in Paraguay Division Profesional
Saturday, 01 February 2025, 23h30 Paraguay Division Profesional
Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno
PREDICTION No tip
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
Don't miss this prediction!

Cerro Porteno x Nacional Asuncion Betting tips for February 1 in Paraguay Division Profesional

Our betting tip for Cerro Porteno x Nacional Asuncion, Saturday, 1/2/2025
πŸ“… 1/2/2025
23:30
Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno
1.65
X
3.40
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
4.82

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Cerro Porteno x Nacional Asuncion:

πŸ‘Ž Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Cerro Porteno x Nacional Asuncion

The main points for the tip for Cerro Porteno x Nacional Asuncion:

πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Cerro Porteno in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-362.0.
πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Nacional Asuncion in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 6 matches as the home team, Cerro Porteno scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the home team against Nacional Asuncion, Cerro Porteno scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 Nacional Asuncion matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 3 Cerro Porteno matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 7 matches as the home team, Cerro Porteno conceded at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ Cerro Porteno has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Nacional Asuncion playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Cerro Porteno x Nacional Asuncion for the Paraguay Division Profesional – 1 of February

🏟️ Cerro Porteno X Nacional Asuncion – Paraguay Division Profesional
πŸ“… 1 of February, 2025 – 23:30
πŸ”΅ Cerro Porteno – Winning probability: 58.86% | Fair line: 1.7
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 24.54% | Fair line: 4.08
πŸ”΄ Nacional Asuncion – Winning probability: 16.60% | Fair line: 6.03
βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: -0.75 Cerro Porteno
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Cerro Porteno x Nacional Asuncion right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1255014 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Cerro Porteno x Nacional Asuncion

Is it worth betting on Cerro Porteno?

πŸ”΅ Cerro Porteno: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 58.86%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.65. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 590 times – having a profit of $383.50;
  • And would have lost other 410 times – with a loss of -$410.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of πŸ’°-$26.50.

Is betting on draw worth it?

βšͺ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.54% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 250 times – profiting $600.00;
  • And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of πŸ’°-$150.00.

Should you bet on Nacional Asuncion?

πŸ”΄ Nacional Asuncion: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 16.6% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.82. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 170 times – this would give you a profit of $649.40
  • And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$180.60.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Cerro Porteno x Nacional Asuncion

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: -0.75 Cerro Porteno
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1Γ—2 market for Cerro Porteno x Nacional Asuncion

βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Cerro Porteno and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Cerro Porteno. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1Γ—2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cerro Porteno x Nacional Asuncion

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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