Defensor Sporting x Club Atletico Progreso Betting tips for November 14 in Uruguay Clausura

Our betting tip for Defensor Sporting x Club Atletico Progreso, Thursday, 14/11/2024

📅 14/11/2024 00:30

Defensor Sporting 1.72

X 3.55

Club Atletico Progreso 4.40

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Defensor Sporting x Club Atletico Progreso:

🔮 Defensor Sporting wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Defensor Sporting, you can win up to $860.00!

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The main points for the tip for Defensor Sporting x Club Atletico Progreso: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Defensor Sporting in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $212.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Club Atletico Progreso in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 Defensor Sporting did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Defensor Sporting scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Club Atletico Progreso, Defensor Sporting scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Club Atletico Progreso conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Defensor Sporting conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Club Atletico Progreso. 👉 Defensor Sporting is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 Defensor Sporting has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Club Atletico Progreso playing at home.

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Analysis from Defensor Sporting x Club Atletico Progreso for the Uruguay Clausura – 14 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Defensor Sporting x Club Atletico Progreso right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1221159 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Defensor Sporting x Club Atletico Progreso

Is betting on Defensor Sporting worth it?

🔵 Defensor Sporting: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 63.58%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.72. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 640 times – having a profit of $460.80;
• And would lose other 360 times – having a loss of -$360.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$100.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 27.8% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.55. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $714.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$6.00.

Is betting on Club Atletico Progreso worth it?

🔴 Club Atletico Progreso: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 8.62% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 90 times – having a profit of $306.00;
• And would lose other 910 times – losing -$910.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$604.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Defensor Sporting x Club Atletico Progreso

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Defensor Sporting
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Defensor Sporting x Club Atletico Progreso

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Defensor Sporting and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Defensor Sporting. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Defensor Sporting x Club Atletico Progreso

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.50 goals.