Deportes Tolima x Once Caldas Betting tips for October 25 in Colombia Primera A

Our betting tip for Deportes Tolima x Once Caldas, Friday, 25/10/2024

📅 25/10/2024 23:30

Deportes Tolima 1.77

X 3.19

Once Caldas 4.60

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Deportes Tolima x Once Caldas:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Deportes Tolima x Once Caldas

The main points for the tip for Deportes Tolima x Once Caldas: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Deportes Tolima in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-205.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Once Caldas in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $30.0. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Once Caldas, Deportes Tolima scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Once Caldas matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Deportes Tolima has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Once Caldas playing at home.

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Analysis from Deportes Tolima x Once Caldas for the Colombia Primera A – 25 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Deportes Tolima x Once Caldas right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1207748 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Deportes Tolima x Once Caldas

Is it a good idea to bet on Deportes Tolima?

🔵 Deportes Tolima: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 57.29% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.77. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 570 times – this would give you a profit of $438.90
• And would lose other 430 times – losing -$430.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$8.90. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.63% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.19. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $613.20;
• And would have lost other 720 times – with a loss of -$720.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$106.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on Once Caldas?

🔴 Once Caldas: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 15.09% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 150 times – having a profit of $540.00;
• And would have lost other 850 times – with a loss of -$850.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$310.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Deportes Tolima x Once Caldas

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Deportes Tolima
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Deportes Tolima x Once Caldas

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Deportes Tolima and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Deportes Tolima.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Deportes Tolima x Once Caldas

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.