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Home » Predictions » Others » Deportivo Pasto x Deportes Tolima Betting tips for October 2 in Colombia Cup
Wednesday, 02 October 2024, 21h30 Colombia Cup
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto
PREDICTION Deportes Tolima Wins Probability 48% 1 X 2
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
ODD: @2.68 Don't miss this prediction!

Deportivo Pasto x Deportes Tolima Betting tips for October 2 in Colombia Cup

Our betting tip for Deportivo Pasto x Deportes Tolima, Wednesday, 2/10/2024
📅 2/10/2024
21:30
Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto
2.89
X
2.66
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
2.68

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Deportivo Pasto x Deportes Tolima:

🔮 Deportes Tolima wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Deportes Tolima, you can win up to $1340.00!

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The main points for the tip for Deportivo Pasto x Deportes Tolima:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Deportivo Pasto in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $300.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Deportes Tolima in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $195.0.
👉 Deportivo Pasto did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Deportivo Pasto scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Deportes Tolima, Deportivo Pasto scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Deportivo Pasto matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 7 Deportes Tolima matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Deportivo Pasto x Deportes Tolima, with Deportivo Pasto as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Playing as the home team, Deportivo Pasto conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Deportes Tolima.
👉 Deportivo Pasto is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Deportivo Pasto x Deportes Tolima for the Colombia Cup – 2 of October

🏟️ Deportivo Pasto X Deportes Tolima – Colombia Cup
📅 2 of October, 2024 – 21:30
🔵 Deportivo Pasto – Winning probability: 32.34% | Fair line: 3.09
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 18.89% | Fair line: 5.29
🔴 Deportes Tolima – Winning probability: 48.77% | Fair line: 2.05
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Deportivo Pasto
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 8.75 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Deportivo Pasto and Deportes Tolima.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1193870 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Deportivo Pasto x Deportes Tolima

Is it worth betting on Deportivo Pasto?

🔵 Deportivo Pasto: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 32.34% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.89. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 320 times – profiting $604.80;
  • And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$75.20.

Is betting on draw worth it?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 18.89% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.66. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $315.40;
  • And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$494.60.

Is betting on Deportes Tolima worth it?

🔴 Deportes Tolima: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 48.77% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.68. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 490 times – having a profit of $823.20;
  • And would have lost other 510 times – with a loss of -$510.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$313.20.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Deportivo Pasto x Deportes Tolima

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Deportivo Pasto
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Deportivo Pasto x Deportes Tolima

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Deportivo Pasto, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Deportivo Pasto.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Deportivo Pasto x Deportes Tolima

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 1.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 1.75 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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