Derby x Leeds Betting tips for December 29 in England Championship

Our betting tip for Derby x Leeds, Sunday, 29/12/2024

📅 29/12/2024 17:45

Derby 5.60

X 4.31

Leeds 1.51

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Derby x Leeds:

🔮 Leeds wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Leeds, you can win up to $755.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Derby x Leeds: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Derby in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $148.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Leeds in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-176.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Derby scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Leeds matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 Derby matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 Playing as the home team, Derby conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Leeds. 👉 Leeds is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 away matches, it had at least 65.00% of possession. 👉 Even as a visitor, Leeds won the last 3 head-to-head matches Derby´s territory

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Analysis from Derby x Leeds for the England Championship – 29 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Derby and Leeds.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1240200 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Derby x Leeds

Is it worth betting on Derby?

🔵 Derby: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 12.17% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 120 times – having a profit of $552.00;
• And would lose other 880 times – having a loss of -$880.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$328.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.59% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.31. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $628.90;
• And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$181.10.

Is it a good idea to bet on Leeds?

🔴 Leeds: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 69.24% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.51. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 690 times – having a profit of $351.90;
• And would lose other 310 times – having a loss of -$310.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$41.90.

Handicaps analysis for the match Derby x Leeds

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Derby
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Derby x Leeds

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.0 Derby, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +1.0 Derby.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Derby x Leeds

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.