Derby x Swansea Betting tips for November 27 in England Championship

Our betting tip for Derby x Swansea, Wednesday, 27/11/2024

📅 27/11/2024 20:00

Derby 2.40

X 3.25

Swansea 2.88

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Derby x Swansea:

🔮 Derby wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Derby, you can win up to $1200.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Derby x Swansea: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Swansea in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-255.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Derby scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Derby x Swansea, with Derby as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Derby has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Swansea playing at home.

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Derby x Swansea?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Derby x Swansea, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2024. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Derby x Swansea for the England Championship – 27 of November

When the best bet on Derby x Swansea is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1228778 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Derby x Swansea

Should you bet on Derby?

🔵 Derby: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 42.9%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 430 times – having a profit of $602.00;
• And would lose other 570 times – losing -$570.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$32.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.34% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 210 times – having a profit of $472.50;
• And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$317.50.

Is it worth betting on Swansea?

🔴 Swansea: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 35.76%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.88. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 360 times – this would give you a profit of $676.80
• And would have lost other 640 times – with a loss of -$640.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$36.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match Derby x Swansea

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Derby
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Derby x Swansea

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Derby and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Derby.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Swansea.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Derby x Swansea

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.