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Home ยป Predictions ยป Others ยป Duhok x Al Najaf Betting tips for November 24 in Iraq League
Friday, 24 November 2023, 00h00 Iraq League
Duhok Duhok
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 26% 1 X 2
Al Najaf Al Najaf
ODD: @2.8 Don't miss this prediction! BET NOW Don't miss this prediction!

Duhok x Al Najaf Betting tips for November 24 in Iraq League

Our betting tip for Duhok x Al Najaf, Friday, 24/11/2023
๐Ÿ“… 24/11/2023
16:00
Duhok Duhok
2.60
X
2.80
Al Najaf Al Najaf
2.74

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Duhok x Al Najaf:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Tied Match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1400.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

Important information for your tip for Duhok x Al Najaf:

๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Duhok in each of its last 2 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-200.
๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Al Najaf in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-290.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 6 Al Najaf matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 4 road matches, Al Najaf has not lost any of them.

๐Ÿ“Š You can also check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Duhok x Al Najaf

Place your Bet with Bet365 Bonus

Summary

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Analysis from Duhok x Al Najaf for the Iraq League – 24 of November

๐ŸŸ๏ธ Duhok X Al Najaf – Iraq League
๐Ÿ“… 24 of November, 2023 – 16:00
๐Ÿ”ต Duhok – Winning probability: 33.80% | Fair line: 2.96
โšช Tied game – Probability of tied match: 40.06% | Fair line: 2.5
๐Ÿ”ด Al Najaf – Winning probability: 26.15% | Fair line: 3.82
โš– Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Duhok
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.00 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 8.75 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Duhok x Al Najaf right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1024927 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Duhok x Al Najaf

Is betting on Duhok worth it?

๐Ÿ”ต Duhok: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 33.8% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 340 times – profiting $544.00;
  • And would lose other 660 times – losing -$660.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$116.00.

Should you bet on draw?

โšช draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 40.06% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 400 times – profiting $720.00;
  • And would have lost other 600 times – with a loss of -$600.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$120.00.

Is betting on Al Najaf worth it?

๐Ÿ”ด Al Najaf: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.15%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.74. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 260 times – profiting $452.40;
  • And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$287.60.

Place your Bet with Bet365 Bonus

Handicaps analysis for the match Duhok x Al Najaf

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

โš– Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Duhok
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Duhok x Al Najaf

โš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Duhok and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Duhok.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Al Najaf.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Duhok x Al Najaf

โšฝ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 1.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 1.75 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves