Duhok x Al Najaf Betting tips for November 24 in Iraq League
📊 You can also check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Duhok x Al Najaf
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Analysis from Duhok x Al Najaf for the Iraq League – 24 of November
🏟️ Duhok X Al Najaf – Iraq League
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Duhok x Al Najaf right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1024927 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Duhok x Al Najaf
Is betting on Duhok worth it?
🔵 Duhok: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 33.8% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 340 times – profiting $544.00;
- And would lose other 660 times – losing -$660.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$116.00.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 40.06% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 400 times – profiting $720.00;
- And would have lost other 600 times – with a loss of -$600.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$120.00.
Is betting on Al Najaf worth it?
🔴 Al Najaf: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.15%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.74. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 260 times – profiting $452.40;
- And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$287.60.
Handicaps analysis for the match Duhok x Al Najaf
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Duhok
⚽ Expected goals: 2.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Duhok x Al Najaf
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Duhok and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Duhok.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Al Najaf.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Duhok x Al Najaf
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 1.75 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 1.75 goals.