Erzgebirge Aue x Schweinfurt 05 Betting tips for December 20 in Germany 3. Liga
| 📅 20/12/2025 13:00 |
 Erzgebirge Aue1.64 |
X 3.84 |
Schweinfurt 05  4.33 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Erzgebirge Aue x Schweinfurt 05:
🔮 Erzgebirge Aue wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Erzgebirge Aue, you can win up to $820.00!
Important information for your tip for Erzgebirge Aue x Schweinfurt 05:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Erzgebirge Aue in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-290.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Schweinfurt 05 in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Schweinfurt 05 conceded at least 2 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Schweinfurt 05 as away team: it comes from 6 losses in a row in its last away matches.
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Analysis from Erzgebirge Aue x Schweinfurt 05 for the Germany 3. Liga – 20 of December
🏟️ Erzgebirge Aue X Schweinfurt 05 – Germany 3. Liga
📅 20 of December, 2025 – 13:00
🔵 Erzgebirge Aue – Winning probability: 69.33% | Fair line: 1.44
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 18.11% | Fair line: 5.52
🔴 Schweinfurt 05 – Winning probability: 12.56% | Fair line: 7.96
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Erzgebirge Aue
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.50 corner kicks
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Erzgebirge Aue x Schweinfurt 05 right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1454511 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Erzgebirge Aue x Schweinfurt 05
Should you bet on Erzgebirge Aue?
🔵 Erzgebirge Aue: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 69.33% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.64. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 690 times – having a profit of $441.60;
- And would lose other 310 times – losing -$310.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$131.60.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 18.11% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.84. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 180 times – having a profit of $511.20;
- And would lose other 820 times – having a loss of -$820.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$308.80.
Is it worth betting on Schweinfurt 05?
🔴 Schweinfurt 05: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 12.56% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.33. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 130 times – having a profit of $432.90;
- And would lose other 870 times – losing -$870.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$437.10.
Handicaps analysis for the match Erzgebirge Aue x Schweinfurt 05
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Erzgebirge Aue
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Erzgebirge Aue x Schweinfurt 05
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 Erzgebirge Aue, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Erzgebirge Aue.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Erzgebirge Aue.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Erzgebirge Aue x Schweinfurt 05
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.
