Falkirk x Livingston Betting tips for October 8 in Scotland Championship

Our betting tip for Falkirk x Livingston, Tuesday, 8/10/2024

📅 8/10/2024 15:45

Falkirk 1.77

X 3.70

Livingston 3.90

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Falkirk x Livingston:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Falkirk x Livingston

Important information for your tip for Falkirk x Livingston: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Falkirk in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $497.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Livingston in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $33.0. 👉 Livingston did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Falkirk scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 Livingston matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Playing as the home team, Falkirk conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Livingston. 👉 Falkirk is good playing home: it has 6 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 In the last 6 road matches, Livingston has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Falkirk x Livingston for the Scotland Championship – 8 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Falkirk x Livingston right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1195698 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Falkirk x Livingston

Is it worth betting on Falkirk?

🔵 Falkirk: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 54.37%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.77. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 540 times – having a profit of $415.80;
• And would lose other 460 times – having a loss of -$460.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$44.20, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.08% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $594.00;
• And would have lost other 780 times – with a loss of -$780.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$186.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Livingston?

🔴 Livingston: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 23.55%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.90. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 240 times – having a profit of $696.00;
• And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$64.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Falkirk x Livingston

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Falkirk
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Falkirk x Livingston

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Falkirk, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Falkirk.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Falkirk x Livingston

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.