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Home Β» Predictions Β» Others Β» FC Porto x Montalegre Betting tips for November 24 in Portugal Cup
Friday, 24 November 2023, 00h00 Portugal Cup
FC Porto FC Porto
PREDICTION No tip
Montalegre Montalegre
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FC Porto x Montalegre Betting tips for November 24 in Portugal Cup

Our betting tip for FC Porto x Montalegre, Friday, 24/11/2023
πŸ“… 24/11/2023
20:45
FC Porto FC Porto
1.05
X
12.00
Montalegre Montalegre
24.30

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for FC Porto x Montalegre:

πŸ‘Ž Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for FC Porto x Montalegre

Some important points for the tip for FC Porto x Montalegre:

πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on FC Porto in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-125.0.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 FC Porto matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ FC Porto is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 62.00% of possession.

πŸ“Š Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for FC Porto x Montalegre

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Summary

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on FC Porto x Montalegre?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2023, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on FC Porto x Montalegre:

Analysis from FC Porto x Montalegre for the Portugal Cup – 24 of November

🏟️ FC Porto X Montalegre – Portugal Cup
πŸ“… 24 of November, 2023 – 20:45
πŸ”΅ FC Porto – Winning probability: 99.99% | Fair line: 1.0
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 0.01% | Fair line: 6770.76
πŸ”΄ Montalegre – Winning probability: 0.00% | Fair line: 829029.29
βš– Handicap 1×2: -2.75 FC Porto
⚽ Expected goals: 4.00 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for FC Porto x Montalegre right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1024961 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for FC Porto x Montalegre

Is it worth betting on FC Porto?

πŸ”΅ FC Porto: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 99.99%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.05. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 1000 times – having a profit of $50.00;
  • And would lose other 0 times – losing -$0.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just πŸ’°$50.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

βšͺ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 0.01% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 12.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 0 times – profiting $0.00;
  • And would lose other 1000 times – losing -$1000.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of πŸ’°-$1000.00.

Should you bet on Montalegre?

πŸ”΄ Montalegre: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 0.0% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 24.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 0 times – this would give you a profit of $0.00
  • And would lose other 1000 times – having a loss of -$1000.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$1000.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match FC Porto x Montalegre

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

βš– Handicap 1×2: -2.75 FC Porto
⚽ Expected goals: 4.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for FC Porto x Montalegre

βš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -2.75 FC Porto and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -3.25 FC Porto.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 3.25 Montalegre.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for FC Porto x Montalegre

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 4.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 4.00 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves