Gimnastic x Celta Fortuna Betting tips for November 27 in Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1

Our betting tip for Gimnastic x Celta Fortuna, Wednesday, 27/11/2024

📅 27/11/2024 18:30

Gimnastic 1.80

X 3.20

Celta Fortuna 4.20

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Gimnastic x Celta Fortuna:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Gimnastic x Celta Fortuna

Important information for your tip for Gimnastic x Celta Fortuna: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Gimnastic in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-2.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Celta Fortuna in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $15.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Gimnastic scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Celta Fortuna conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Gimnastic x Celta Fortuna for the Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 – 27 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Gimnastic x Celta Fortuna right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1228778 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Gimnastic x Celta Fortuna

Should you bet on Gimnastic?

🔵 Gimnastic: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 55.03% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 550 times – having a profit of $440.00;
• And would lose other 450 times – losing -$450.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$10.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 28.21% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $616.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$104.00.

Is betting on Celta Fortuna worth it?

🔴 Celta Fortuna: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 16.76%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 170 times – profiting $544.00;
• And would lose other 830 times – losing -$830.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$286.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Gimnastic x Celta Fortuna

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Gimnastic
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Gimnastic x Celta Fortuna

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Gimnastic and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Gimnastic.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Gimnastic x Celta Fortuna

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.