Guarani x Avai Betting tips for September 30 in Brazil Serie B

Our betting tip for Guarani x Avai, Monday, 30/9/2024

📅 30/9/2024 21:30

Guarani 2.25

X 2.84

Avai 3.40

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Guarani x Avai:

🔮 Tied Match
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Some important points for the tip for Guarani x Avai: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Guarani in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $410.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Avai in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $590.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Guarani scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Avai, Guarani scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Guarani x Avai, with Guarani as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Avai conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Guarani has won all the last 3 matches playing at home against Avai.

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Analysis from Guarani x Avai for the Brazil Serie B – 30 of September

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Guarani and Avai.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1190352 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Guarani x Avai

Is betting on Guarani worth it?

🔵 Guarani: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 42.41%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 420 times – profiting $525.00;
• And would have lost other 580 times – with a loss of -$580.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$55.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 37.54% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.84. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 380 times – this would give you a profit of $699.20
• And would lose other 620 times – losing -$620.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$79.20.

Is betting on Avai worth it?

🔴 Avai: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 20.05% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 200 times – this would give you a profit of $480.00
• And would lose other 800 times – losing -$800.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$320.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Guarani x Avai

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Guarani
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Guarani x Avai

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Guarani and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Guarani.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Guarani x Avai

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 1.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 1.75 goals.