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Home Β» Predictions Β» Others Β» Guarani x Noroeste Betting tips for January 26 in Brazil Campeonato Paulista
Sunday, 26 January 2025, 23h30 Brazil Campeonato Paulista
Guarani Guarani
PREDICTION No tip
Noroeste Noroeste
Don't miss this prediction!

Guarani x Noroeste Betting tips for January 26 in Brazil Campeonato Paulista

Our betting tip for Guarani x Noroeste, Sunday, 26/1/2025
πŸ“… 26/1/2025
23:30
Guarani Guarani
1.93
X
3.10
Noroeste Noroeste
3.90

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Guarani x Noroeste:

πŸ‘Ž Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Guarani x Noroeste

Some important points for the tip for Guarani x Noroeste:

πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Guarani in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-60.0.
πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Noroeste in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $200.0.
πŸ‘‰ Guarani did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as home team.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 7 matches as the away team, Noroeste scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 Guarani matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 3 Noroeste matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 5 road matches, Noroeste has not lost any of them.

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Summary

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Analysis from Guarani x Noroeste for the Brazil Campeonato Paulista – 26 of January

🏟️ Guarani X Noroeste – Brazil Campeonato Paulista
πŸ“… 26 of January, 2025 – 23:30
πŸ”΅ Guarani – Winning probability: 53.27% | Fair line: 1.88
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 24.72% | Fair line: 4.04
πŸ”΄ Noroeste – Winning probability: 22.01% | Fair line: 4.54
βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: -0.25 Guarani
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Guarani x Noroeste right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1251921 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1Γ—2 market for Guarani x Noroeste

Is it a good idea to bet on Guarani?

πŸ”΅ Guarani: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 53.27%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.93. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 530 times – profiting $492.90;
  • And would have lost other 470 times – with a loss of -$470.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just πŸ’°$22.90 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Should you bet on draw?

βšͺ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.72% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $525.00
  • And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of πŸ’°-$225.00.

Should you bet on Noroeste?

πŸ”΄ Noroeste: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.01% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $638.00;
  • And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of πŸ’°-$142.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Guarani x Noroeste

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: -0.25 Guarani
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1Γ—2 market for Guarani x Noroeste

βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Guarani, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Guarani.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1Γ—2 is on: 0.5 Noroeste.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Guarani x Noroeste

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

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Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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