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Home » Predictions » Others » Honduras x Mexico Betting tips for November 16 in CONCACAF Nations League
Saturday, 16 November 2024, 02h00 CONCACAF Nations League
Honduras Honduras
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 30% 1 X 2
Mexico Mexico
ODD: @3.95 Don't miss this prediction!

Honduras x Mexico Betting tips for November 16 in CONCACAF Nations League

Our betting tip for Honduras x Mexico, Saturday, 16/11/2024
📅 16/11/2024
02:00
Honduras Honduras
5.10
X
3.95
Mexico Mexico
1.54

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Honduras x Mexico:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1975.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Honduras x Mexico:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Honduras in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $345.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Mexico in each of its last 4 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-238.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Honduras scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Honduras matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.

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Summary

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Analysis from Honduras x Mexico for the CONCACAF Nations League – 16 of November

🏟️ Honduras X Mexico – CONCACAF Nations League
📅 16 of November, 2024 – 02:00
🔵 Honduras – Winning probability: 12.22% | Fair line: 8.18
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 30.26% | Fair line: 3.3
🔴 Mexico – Winning probability: 57.52% | Fair line: 1.74
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Honduras
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

When the best bet on Honduras x Mexico is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1221437 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Honduras x Mexico

Is betting on Honduras worth it?

🔵 Honduras: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 12.22% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 120 times – profiting $492.00;
  • And would lose other 880 times – having a loss of -$880.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$388.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.26%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.95. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 300 times – this would give you a profit of $885.00
  • And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$185.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Mexico?

🔴 Mexico: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 57.52%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.54. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 580 times – this would give you a profit of $313.20
  • And would lose other 420 times – losing -$420.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$106.80.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Honduras x Mexico

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Honduras
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Honduras x Mexico

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Honduras and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +1.25 Honduras.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.75, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +1.25 Honduras.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Honduras x Mexico

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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