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Home ยป Predictions ยป Others ยป IA Sud America x Club Atletico Progreso Betting tips for November 24 in Uruguay Segunda
Friday, 24 November 2023, 00h00 Uruguay Segunda
IA Sud America IA Sud America
PREDICTION Club Atletico Progreso Wins Probability 65% 1 X 2
Club Atletico Progreso Club Atletico Progreso
ODD: @1.75 Don't miss this prediction! BET NOW Don't miss this prediction!

IA Sud America x Club Atletico Progreso Betting tips for November 24 in Uruguay Segunda

Our betting tip for IA Sud America x Club Atletico Progreso, Friday, 24/11/2023
๐Ÿ“… 24/11/2023
13:00
IA Sud America IA Sud America
4.10
X
3.45
Club Atletico Progreso Club Atletico Progreso
1.75

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for IA Sud America x Club Atletico Progreso:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Club Atletico Progreso wins the match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Club Atletico Progreso, you can win up to $875.00!

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Important information for your tip for IA Sud America x Club Atletico Progreso:

๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on IA Sud America in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-125.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Club Atletico Progreso in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-147.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the away team, Club Atletico Progreso scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 3 IA Sud America matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 7 matches as the home team, IA Sud America conceded at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 4 road matches, Club Atletico Progreso has not lost any of them.

๐Ÿ“Š Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for IA Sud America x Club Atletico Progreso

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Summary

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Analysis from IA Sud America x Club Atletico Progreso for the Uruguay Segunda – 24 of November

๐ŸŸ๏ธ IA Sud America X Club Atletico Progreso – Uruguay Segunda
๐Ÿ“… 24 of November, 2023 – 13:00
๐Ÿ”ต IA Sud America – Winning probability: 9.67% | Fair line: 10.34
โšช Tied game – Probability of tied match: 24.51% | Fair line: 4.08
๐Ÿ”ด Club Atletico Progreso – Winning probability: 65.82% | Fair line: 1.52
โš– Handicap 1×2: +1.25 IA Sud America
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for IA Sud America x Club Atletico Progreso right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1024961 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for IA Sud America x Club Atletico Progreso

Should you bet on IA Sud America?

๐Ÿ”ต IA Sud America: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 9.67% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 100 times – profiting $310.00;
  • And would have lost other 900 times – with a loss of -$900.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$590.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

โšช draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.51% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.45. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $612.50;
  • And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$137.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on Club Atletico Progreso?

๐Ÿ”ด Club Atletico Progreso: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 65.82% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.75. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 660 times – profiting $495.00;
  • And would lose other 340 times – losing -$340.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$155.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match IA Sud America x Club Atletico Progreso

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

โš– Handicap 1×2: +1.25 IA Sud America
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for IA Sud America x Club Atletico Progreso

โš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +1.25 IA Sud America and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 IA Sud America.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Club Atletico Progreso.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for IA Sud America x Club Atletico Progreso

โšฝ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves