Itabirito x Cruzeiro Betting tips for January 30 in Brazil Campeonato Mineiro
📅 30/1/2025 22:00 |
![]() 6.12 |
X 3.81 |
Cruzeiro ![]() 1.47 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Itabirito x Cruzeiro:
🔮 Cruzeiro wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Cruzeiro, you can win up to $735.00!
The main points for the tip for Itabirito x Cruzeiro: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Itabirito in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-320.0. |
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Analysis from Itabirito x Cruzeiro for the Brazil Campeonato Mineiro – 30 of January
🏟️ Itabirito X Cruzeiro – Brazil Campeonato Mineiro |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Itabirito x Cruzeiro right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1254175 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Itabirito x Cruzeiro
Is it a good idea to bet on Itabirito?
🔵 Itabirito: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 2.63% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.12. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 30 times – this would give you a profit of $153.60
- And would lose other 970 times – losing -$970.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$816.40.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 12.25% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.81. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 120 times – having a profit of $337.20;
- And would have lost other 880 times – with a loss of -$880.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$542.80.
Should you bet on Cruzeiro?
🔴 Cruzeiro: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 85.13% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.47. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 850 times – having a profit of $399.50;
- And would lose other 150 times – losing -$150.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$249.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match Itabirito x Cruzeiro
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.25 Itabirito
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Itabirito x Cruzeiro
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +1.25 Itabirito and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +1.0 Itabirito.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.0 Cruzeiro.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Itabirito x Cruzeiro
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.