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Home » Predictions » Others » Lazio x Napoli Betting tips for December 5 in Coppa Italia
Thursday, 05 December 2024, 20h00 Coppa Italia
Lazio Lazio
PREDICTION Lazio wins Probability 44% 1 X 2
Napoli Napoli
ODD: @2.48 Don't miss this prediction!

Lazio x Napoli Betting tips for December 5 in Coppa Italia

Our betting tip for Lazio x Napoli, Thursday, 5/12/2024
📅 5/12/2024
20:00
Lazio Lazio
2.48
X
3.20
Napoli Napoli
2.66

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Lazio x Napoli:

🔮 Lazio wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Lazio, you can win up to $1240.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

Important information for your tip for Lazio x Napoli:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Lazio in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $223.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $127.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Napoli scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 Napoli matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 road matches, Napoli has not lost any of them.

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Summary

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Analysis from Lazio x Napoli for the Coppa Italia – 5 of December

🏟️ Lazio X Napoli – Coppa Italia
📅 5 of December, 2024 – 20:00
🔵 Lazio – Winning probability: 44.19% | Fair line: 2.26
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 28.84% | Fair line: 3.47
🔴 Napoli – Winning probability: 26.97% | Fair line: 3.71
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Lazio
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 8.75 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Lazio and Napoli.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1232417 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Lazio x Napoli

Is betting on Lazio worth it?

🔵 Lazio: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 44.19% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.48. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 440 times – this would give you a profit of $651.20
  • And would lose other 560 times – losing -$560.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$91.20.

Is betting on draw worth it?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 28.84% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $638.00
  • And would lose other 710 times – losing -$710.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$72.00.

Should you bet on Napoli?

🔴 Napoli: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.97%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.66. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 270 times – profiting $448.20;
  • And would have lost other 730 times – with a loss of -$730.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$281.80.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Lazio x Napoli

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Lazio
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lazio x Napoli

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Lazio and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Lazio.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Lazio.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lazio x Napoli

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 1.00. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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