Manchester City x Brentford Betting tips for December 17 in England EFL Cup
| 📅 17/12/2025 19:30 |
 Manchester City1.33 |
X 5.00 |
Brentford  8.00 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Manchester City x Brentford:
🔮 Manchester City wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Manchester City, you can win up to $665.00!
The main points for the tip for Manchester City x Brentford:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Manchester City in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $85.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Brentford in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-362.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Brentford, Manchester City scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Brentford conceded at least 2 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Brentford as away team: it comes from 4 losses in a row in its last away matches.
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Analysis from Manchester City x Brentford for the England EFL Cup – 17 of December
🏟️ Manchester City X Brentford – England EFL Cup
📅 17 of December, 2025 – 19:30
🔵 Manchester City – Winning probability: 91.40% | Fair line: 1.09
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 4.88% | Fair line: 20.49
🔴 Brentford – Winning probability: 3.72% | Fair line: 26.9
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Manchester City
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
When the best bet on Manchester City x Brentford is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1452605 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Manchester City x Brentford
Should you bet on Manchester City?
🔵 Manchester City: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 91.4%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.33. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 910 times – profiting $300.30;
- And would lose other 90 times – having a loss of -$90.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$210.30.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 4.88% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 50 times – profiting $200.00;
- And would have lost other 950 times – with a loss of -$950.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$750.00.
Should you bet on Brentford?
🔴 Brentford: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 3.72% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 8.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 40 times – this would give you a profit of $280.00
- And would have lost other 960 times – with a loss of -$960.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$680.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Manchester City x Brentford
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Manchester City
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Manchester City x Brentford
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.5 Manchester City and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.5 Manchester City.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Manchester City x Brentford
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.
