Marseille x Lille Betting tips for January 14 in France Cup

Our betting tip for Marseille x Lille, Tuesday, 14/1/2025

📅 14/1/2025 20:10

Marseille 2.10

X 3.35

Lille 3.10

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Marseille x Lille:

🔮 Lille wins the match
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Important information for your tip for Marseille x Lille: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Marseille in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-100.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Lille in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-68.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Marseille scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Lille matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Lille caused at least one sending-off in its last 4 matches as the away team. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Marseille conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 9 road matches, Lille has not lost any of them. 👉 Marseille has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Lille playing at home.

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Analysis from Marseille x Lille for the France Cup – 14 of January

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Marseille and Lille.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1245132 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Marseille x Lille

Is it worth betting on Marseille?

🔵 Marseille: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 47.47% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 470 times – having a profit of $517.00;
• And would lose other 530 times – losing -$530.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$13.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 16.11% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.35. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 160 times – profiting $376.00;
• And would lose other 840 times – having a loss of -$840.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$464.00.

Is it worth betting on Lille?

🔴 Lille: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 36.42% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 360 times – this would give you a profit of $756.00
• And would have lost other 640 times – with a loss of -$640.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$116.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Marseille x Lille

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Marseille
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Marseille x Lille

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Marseille and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Marseille.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Lille.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Marseille x Lille

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.