Millonarios x Alianza Betting tips for March 30 in Colombia Primera A

Our betting tip for Millonarios x Alianza, Sunday, 30/3/2025

📅 30/3/2025
20:30

Millonarios
1.53

X
3.70

Alianza

6.00

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Millonarios x Alianza:

🔮 Millonarios wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Millonarios, you can win up to $765.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com

The main points for the tip for Millonarios x Alianza:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Millonarios in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $263.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Alianza in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-210.0.
👉 Millonarios did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Millonarios scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 Millonarios matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 Millonarios is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.

Summary

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Analysis from Millonarios x Alianza for the Colombia Primera A – 30 of March

🏟️ Millonarios X Alianza – Colombia Primera A
📅 30 of March, 2025 – 20:30
🔵 Millonarios – Winning probability: 72.02% | Fair line: 1.39
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 21.01% | Fair line: 4.76
🔴 Alianza – Winning probability: 6.98% | Fair line: 14.34
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Millonarios
⚽ Expected goals: 2.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 8.75 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Millonarios and Alianza.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1291828 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Millonarios x Alianza

Should you bet on Millonarios?

🔵 Millonarios: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 72.02%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.53. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

Would have hit 720 times – having a profit of $381.60;
And would have lost other 280 times – with a loss of -$280.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$101.60.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.01% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

Would hit 210 times – profiting $567.00;
And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$223.00.

Should you bet on Alianza?

🔴 Alianza: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 6.98% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would hit 70 times – profiting $350.00;
And would have lost other 930 times – with a loss of -$930.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$580.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Millonarios x Alianza

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Millonarios
⚽ Expected goals: 2.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Millonarios x Alianza

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 Millonarios, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 Millonarios.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Millonarios x Alianza

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.