Millonarios x Fortaleza CEIF Betting tips for October 17 in Colombia Primera A

Our betting tip for Millonarios x Fortaleza CEIF, Thursday, 17/10/2024

📅 17/10/2024 01:05

Millonarios 1.80

X 3.30

Fortaleza CEIF 4.50

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Millonarios x Fortaleza CEIF:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Millonarios x Fortaleza CEIF

Some important points for the tip for Millonarios x Fortaleza CEIF: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Millonarios in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $8.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Fortaleza CEIF in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 Millonarios did not concede a goal in the last 5 matches as home team. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Fortaleza CEIF scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Fortaleza CEIF, Millonarios scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Fortaleza CEIF conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Millonarios has won all the last 4 matches playing at home against Fortaleza CEIF.

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Analysis from Millonarios x Fortaleza CEIF for the Colombia Primera A – 17 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Millonarios x Fortaleza CEIF right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1202780 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Millonarios x Fortaleza CEIF

Is it worth betting on Millonarios?

🔵 Millonarios: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 49.2%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 490 times – profiting $392.00;
• And would have lost other 510 times – with a loss of -$510.00 because of them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$118.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 31.55% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $736.00
• And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$56.00.

Is it worth betting on Fortaleza CEIF?

🔴 Fortaleza CEIF: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 19.25%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $665.00;
• And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$145.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Millonarios x Fortaleza CEIF

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Millonarios
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Millonarios x Fortaleza CEIF

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Millonarios, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Millonarios.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Millonarios.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Millonarios x Fortaleza CEIF

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.