Monagas x Deportivo La Guaira Betting tips for November 17 in Venezuela Primera Division
| 📅 17/11/2024 21:00 |
 Monagas3.20 |
X 3.15 |
Deportivo La Guaira  2.05 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Monagas x Deportivo La Guaira:
🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1575.00!
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Some important points for the tip for Monagas x Deportivo La Guaira: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Monagas in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-285.0. |
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Analysis from Monagas x Deportivo La Guaira for the Venezuela Primera Division – 17 of November
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🏟️ Monagas X Deportivo La Guaira – Venezuela Primera Division |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Monagas x Deportivo La Guaira right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1222780 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Monagas x Deportivo La Guaira
Is it a good idea to bet on Monagas?
🔵 Monagas: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 37.71% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 380 times – profiting $836.00;
- And would have lost other 620 times – with a loss of -$620.00 because of them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$216.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 36.21% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.15. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 360 times – having a profit of $774.00;
- And would lose other 640 times – losing -$640.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$134.00.
Is betting on Deportivo La Guaira worth it?
🔴 Deportivo La Guaira: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.08%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.05. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $273.00;
- And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$467.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Monagas x Deportivo La Guaira
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Monagas
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Monagas x Deportivo La Guaira
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Monagas, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Monagas.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Monagas.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Monagas x Deportivo La Guaira
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
