Mortagua FC x Sertanense Betting tips for December 1 in Portugal Campeonato Nacional

Our betting tip for Mortagua FC x Sertanense, Sunday, 1/12/2024

📅 1/12/2024 15:00

Mortagua FC 2.25

X 3.00

Sertanense 3.06

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Mortagua FC x Sertanense:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Mortagua FC x Sertanense

The main points for the tip for Mortagua FC x Sertanense: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Mortagua FC in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-200.0. 👉 In the last 5 Mortagua FC matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Sertanense conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Mortagua FC has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Sertanense playing at home. 👉 It is not a good time for Sertanense as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Mortagua FC x Sertanense for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 1 of December

When the best bet on Mortagua FC x Sertanense is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1230121 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Mortagua FC x Sertanense

Is it worth betting on Mortagua FC?

🔵 Mortagua FC: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 40.59% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 410 times – this would give you a profit of $512.50
• And would have lost other 590 times – with a loss of -$590.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$77.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 33.97% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 340 times – profiting $680.00;
• And would lose other 660 times – losing -$660.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$20.00.

Should you bet on Sertanense?

🔴 Sertanense: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.44% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.06. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $515.00;
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$235.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Mortagua FC x Sertanense

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Mortagua FC
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Mortagua FC x Sertanense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Mortagua FC, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Mortagua FC.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Mortagua FC.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Mortagua FC x Sertanense

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.