Moura x Estrela Amadora B Betting tips for March 29 in Portugal Campeonato Nacional
| 📅 29/3/2025 16:00 |
 Moura3.63 |
X 3.20 |
Estrela Amadora B  1.93 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Moura x Estrela Amadora B:
🔮 Estrela Amadora B wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Estrela Amadora B, you can win up to $965.00!
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Some important points for the tip for Moura x Estrela Amadora B: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Moura in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. |
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Analysis from Moura x Estrela Amadora B for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 29 of March
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🏟️ Moura X Estrela Amadora B – Portugal Campeonato Nacional |
When the best bet on Moura x Estrela Amadora B is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1290777 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Moura x Estrela Amadora B
Is betting on Moura worth it?
🔵 Moura: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 12.93% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.63. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 130 times – this would give you a profit of $341.90
- And would lose other 870 times – losing -$870.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$528.10.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.08% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 220 times – profiting $484.00;
- And would lose other 780 times – losing -$780.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$296.00.
Should you bet on Estrela Amadora B?
🔴 Estrela Amadora B: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 64.99% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.93. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 650 times – having a profit of $604.50;
- And would have lost other 350 times – with a loss of -$350.00 because of them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$254.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match Moura x Estrela Amadora B
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Moura
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Moura x Estrela Amadora B
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Moura, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Moura.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Estrela Amadora B.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Moura x Estrela Amadora B
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
