Napoli x AC Milan Betting tips for December 18 in Italy Super Cup
| 📅 18/12/2025 21:00 |
 Napoli2.70 |
X 3.08 |
AC Milan  2.70 |
This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Napoli x AC Milan:
🔮 AC Milan wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on AC Milan, you can win up to $1350.00!
The main points for the tip for Napoli x AC Milan:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $117.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on AC Milan in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $42.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Napoli scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against AC Milan, Napoli scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Napoli conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against AC Milan.
👉 Napoli has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against AC Milan playing at home.
Looking for another bookie to bet on Napoli x AC Milan?
If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2025. You just have to click, deposit and bet:
Analysis from Napoli x AC Milan for the Italy Super Cup – 18 of December
🏟️ Napoli X AC Milan – Italy Super Cup
📅 18 of December, 2025 – 21:00
🔵 Napoli – Winning probability: 37.71% | Fair line: 2.65
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 15.16% | Fair line: 6.6
🔴 AC Milan – Winning probability: 47.13% | Fair line: 2.12
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Napoli
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 8.25 corner kicks
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Napoli and AC Milan.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1452940 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Napoli x AC Milan
Is it a good idea to bet on Napoli?
🔵 Napoli: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 37.71%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 380 times – profiting $646.00;
- And would lose other 620 times – losing -$620.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$26.00.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 15.16% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.08. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 150 times – having a profit of $312.00;
- And would lose other 850 times – having a loss of -$850.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$538.00.
Is betting on AC Milan worth it?
🔴 AC Milan: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 47.13% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 470 times – having a profit of $799.00;
- And would have lost other 530 times – with a loss of -$530.00 because of them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$269.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Napoli x AC Milan
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Napoli
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Napoli x AC Milan
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Napoli and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Napoli.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 AC Milan.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Napoli x AC Milan
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
