Numancia x Deportivo Fabril Betting tips for December 13 in Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1

Our betting tip for Numancia x Deportivo Fabril, Saturday, 13/12/2025

📅 13/12/2025 17:00

Numancia 2.10

X 3.00

Deportivo Fabril 3.25

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Numancia x Deportivo Fabril:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Numancia x Deportivo Fabril

The main points for the tip for Numancia x Deportivo Fabril:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Numancia in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $84.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Deportivo Fabril in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-105.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Numancia scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Deportivo Fabril scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 Numancia matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Numancia conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Numancia x Deportivo Fabril for the Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 – 13 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Numancia x Deportivo Fabril right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1452291 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Numancia x Deportivo Fabril

Is it worth betting on Numancia?

🔵 Numancia: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 40.13% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 400 times – having a profit of $440.00;
• And would lose other 600 times – losing -$600.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$160.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.12% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – this would give you a profit of $560.00
• And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$160.00.

Should you bet on Deportivo Fabril?

🔴 Deportivo Fabril: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 31.76% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $720.00
• And would lose other 680 times – losing -$680.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$40.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Handicaps analysis for the match Numancia x Deportivo Fabril

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Numancia
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Numancia x Deportivo Fabril

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.5 Numancia, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Numancia.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Deportivo Fabril.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Numancia x Deportivo Fabril

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.