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Home ยป Predictions ยป Others ยป Parma x Modena Betting tips for November 25 in Italy Serie B
Saturday, 25 November 2023, 00h00 Italy Serie B
Parma Parma
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 13% 1 X 2
Modena Modena
ODD: @3.35 Don't miss this prediction! BET NOW Don't miss this prediction!

Parma x Modena Betting tips for November 25 in Italy Serie B

Our betting tip for Parma x Modena, Saturday, 25/11/2023
๐Ÿ“… 25/11/2023
13:00
Parma Parma
1.90
X
3.35
Modena Modena
4.00

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Parma x Modena:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Parma wins the match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Parma, you can win up to $950.00!

๐Ÿ”ฎ Tied Match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1675.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

Important information for your tip for Parma x Modena:

๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Parma in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $53.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Modena in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $90.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the home team, Parma scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 3 matches as the away team, Modena scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ Parma is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 6 road matches, Modena has not lost any of them.

๐Ÿ“Š Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Parma x Modena

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Summary

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Analysis from Parma x Modena for the Italy Serie B – 25 of November

๐ŸŸ๏ธ Parma X Modena – Italy Serie B
๐Ÿ“… 25 of November, 2023 – 13:00
๐Ÿ”ต Parma – Winning probability: 52.75% | Fair line: 1.9
โšช Tied game – Probability of tied match: 34.20% | Fair line: 2.92
๐Ÿ”ด Modena – Winning probability: 13.04% | Fair line: 7.67
โš– Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Parma
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Parma x Modena right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1024927 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Parma x Modena

Is it worth betting on Parma?

๐Ÿ”ต Parma: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 52.75%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 530 times – having a profit of $477.00;
  • And would lose other 470 times – losing -$470.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$7.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

โšช draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 34.2% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.35. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 340 times – having a profit of $799.00;
  • And would have lost other 660 times – with a loss of -$660.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$139.00.

Is it worth betting on Modena?

๐Ÿ”ด Modena: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 13.04% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 130 times – this would give you a profit of $390.00
  • And would lose other 870 times – having a loss of -$870.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$480.00.

Place your Bet with Bet365 Bonus

Handicaps analysis for the match Parma x Modena

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

โš– Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Parma
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Parma x Modena

โš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Parma and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Parma.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Modena.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Parma x Modena

โšฝ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves