Penafiel x Vitoria Setubal Betting tips for November 25 in Portugal Cup

Our betting tip for Penafiel x Vitoria Setubal, Saturday, 25/11/2023

📅 25/11/2023 17:00

Penafiel 1.74

X 3.40

Vitoria Setubal 4.50

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Penafiel x Vitoria Setubal:

🔮 Penafiel wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Penafiel, you can win up to $870.00!

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The main points for the tip for Penafiel x Vitoria Setubal: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Vitoria Setubal in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $35.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Penafiel scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Vitoria Setubal scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 Vitoria Setubal matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Vitoria Setubal conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Penafiel is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home. 👉 In the last 8 road matches, Vitoria Setubal has not lost any of them.

📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Penafiel x Vitoria Setubal

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Analysis from Penafiel x Vitoria Setubal for the Portugal Cup – 25 of November

When the best bet on Penafiel x Vitoria Setubal is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1025263 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Penafiel x Vitoria Setubal

Is it worth betting on Penafiel?

🔵 Penafiel: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 74.28%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.74. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 740 times – profiting $547.60;
• And would lose other 260 times – losing -$260.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$287.60.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 12.15% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 120 times – having a profit of $288.00;
• And would have lost other 880 times – with a loss of -$880.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$592.00.

Should you bet on Vitoria Setubal?

🔴 Vitoria Setubal: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 13.57% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 140 times – this would give you a profit of $490.00
• And would lose other 860 times – having a loss of -$860.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$370.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Penafiel x Vitoria Setubal

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Penafiel
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Penafiel x Vitoria Setubal

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Penafiel, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Penafiel.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Penafiel.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Penafiel x Vitoria Setubal

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.