Penarol x Cerro Largo Betting tips for March 30 in Uruguay Apertura

Our betting tip for Penarol x Cerro Largo, Sunday, 30/3/2025

📅 30/3/2025 23:30

Penarol 1.37

X 4.20

Cerro Largo 7.58

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Penarol x Cerro Largo:

🔮 Penarol wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Penarol, you can win up to $685.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for Penarol x Cerro Largo: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Penarol in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Cerro Largo in each of its last 3 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-300. 👉 Cerro Largo did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Penarol x Cerro Largo, with Penarol as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Penarol conceded at least 1 goal(s).

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Penarol x Cerro Largo?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Penarol x Cerro Largo, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Penarol x Cerro Largo for the Uruguay Apertura – 30 of March

When the best bet on Penarol x Cerro Largo is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1291828 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Penarol x Cerro Largo

Is it a good idea to bet on Penarol?

🔵 Penarol: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 75.27% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.37. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 750 times – having a profit of $277.50;
• And would lose other 250 times – having a loss of -$250.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$27.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 19.27%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – profiting $608.00;
• And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$202.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Cerro Largo?

🔴 Cerro Largo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 5.45%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 7.58. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 50 times – profiting $329.00;
• And would lose other 950 times – having a loss of -$950.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$621.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Penarol x Cerro Largo

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Penarol
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Penarol x Cerro Largo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 Penarol, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 Penarol.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Cerro Largo.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Penarol x Cerro Largo

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.