Pogon Szczecin x Stal Mielec Betting tips for November 25 in Poland Ekstraklasa

Our betting tip for Pogon Szczecin x Stal Mielec, Saturday, 25/11/2023

📅 25/11/2023 16:30

Pogon Szczecin 1.36

X 4.58

Stal Mielec 7.38

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Pogon Szczecin x Stal Mielec:

🔮 Pogon Szczecin wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Pogon Szczecin, you can win up to $680.00!

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Important information for your tip for Pogon Szczecin x Stal Mielec: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Pogon Szczecin in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $124.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Stal Mielec in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $738.0. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Pogon Szczecin scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Stal Mielec, Pogon Szczecin scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Stal Mielec matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Stal Mielec conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Pogon Szczecin has won all the last 3 matches playing at home against Stal Mielec.

📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Pogon Szczecin x Stal Mielec

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Analysis from Pogon Szczecin x Stal Mielec for the Poland Ekstraklasa – 25 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Pogon Szczecin x Stal Mielec right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1025263 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Pogon Szczecin x Stal Mielec

Is betting on Pogon Szczecin worth it?

🔵 Pogon Szczecin: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 83.52% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.36. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 840 times – this would give you a profit of $302.40
• And would lose other 160 times – losing -$160.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$142.40.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 12.11%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.58. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 120 times – having a profit of $429.60;
• And would lose other 880 times – having a loss of -$880.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$450.40.

Is it worth betting on Stal Mielec?

🔴 Stal Mielec: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 4.37% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 7.38. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 40 times – having a profit of $255.20;
• And would have lost other 960 times – with a loss of -$960.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$704.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match Pogon Szczecin x Stal Mielec

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Pogon Szczecin
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Pogon Szczecin x Stal Mielec

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.75 Pogon Szczecin and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.25 Pogon Szczecin.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.25 Pogon Szczecin.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Pogon Szczecin x Stal Mielec

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.