Sakaryaspor x Umraniyespor Betting tips for September 29 in Turkey 1 Lig

Our betting tip for Sakaryaspor x Umraniyespor, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 10:00

Sakaryaspor 2.15

X 3.30

Umraniyespor 3.00

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Sakaryaspor x Umraniyespor:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Sakaryaspor x Umraniyespor

Some important points for the tip for Sakaryaspor x Umraniyespor: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Sakaryaspor in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-315.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Umraniyespor in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $200.0. 👉 In the last 3 Sakaryaspor matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.

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Analysis from Sakaryaspor x Umraniyespor for the Turkey 1 Lig – 29 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Sakaryaspor x Umraniyespor right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1190630 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Sakaryaspor x Umraniyespor

Is it worth betting on Sakaryaspor?

🔵 Sakaryaspor: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 47.8% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.15. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 480 times – having a profit of $552.00;
• And would have lost other 520 times – with a loss of -$520.00 because of them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$32.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.44% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $575.00;
• And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$175.00.

Is it worth betting on Umraniyespor?

🔴 Umraniyespor: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.76%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 270 times – profiting $540.00;
• And would have lost other 730 times – with a loss of -$730.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$190.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Sakaryaspor x Umraniyespor

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Sakaryaspor
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sakaryaspor x Umraniyespor

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Sakaryaspor, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Sakaryaspor.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sakaryaspor x Umraniyespor

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.