Shatin x Sham Shui Po Betting tips for December 14 in Hong Kong 1st Division
| 📅 14/12/2025 05:30 |
 Shatin1.96 |
X 3.80 |
Sham Shui Po  2.96 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Shatin x Sham Shui Po:
🔮 Shatin wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Shatin, you can win up to $980.00!
The main points for the tip for Shatin x Sham Shui Po:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Shatin in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-45.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Sham Shui Po in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $66.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Shatin scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Sham Shui Po scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Sham Shui Po is hard to beat as a visitor: it has 3 wins in a row in its last road matches.
👉 Shatin has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Sham Shui Po playing at home.
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Analysis from Shatin x Sham Shui Po for the Hong Kong 1st Division – 14 of December
🏟️ Shatin X Sham Shui Po – Hong Kong 1st Division
📅 14 of December, 2025 – 05:30
🔵 Shatin – Winning probability: 48.92% | Fair line: 2.04
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 20.70% | Fair line: 4.83
🔴 Sham Shui Po – Winning probability: 30.38% | Fair line: 3.29
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Shatin
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Shatin x Sham Shui Po right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1452605 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Shatin x Sham Shui Po
Is betting on Shatin worth it?
🔵 Shatin: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 48.92% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.96. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 490 times – this would give you a profit of $470.40
- And would lose other 510 times – losing -$510.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$39.60.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 20.7% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $588.00
- And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$202.00.
Should you bet on Sham Shui Po?
🔴 Sham Shui Po: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 30.38% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.96. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 300 times – this would give you a profit of $588.00
- And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$112.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Shatin x Sham Shui Po
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Shatin
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Shatin x Sham Shui Po
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Shatin and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Shatin.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Shatin.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Shatin x Sham Shui Po
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.25 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.25 goals.
