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Home ยป Predictions ยป Others ยป Shimizu S-Pulse x Montedio Yamagata Betting tips for November 25 in Japan J-League Play-Offs
Saturday, 25 November 2023, 00h00 Japan J-League Play-Offs
Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse
PREDICTION Shimizu S-Pulse wins Probability 11% 1 X 2
Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata
ODD: @1.53 Don't miss this prediction! BET NOW Don't miss this prediction!

Shimizu S-Pulse x Montedio Yamagata Betting tips for November 25 in Japan J-League Play-Offs

Our betting tip for Shimizu S-Pulse x Montedio Yamagata, Saturday, 25/11/2023
๐Ÿ“… 25/11/2023
04:00
Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse
1.53
X
4.20
Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata
5.00

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Shimizu S-Pulse x Montedio Yamagata:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Shimizu S-Pulse wins the match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Shimizu S-Pulse, you can win up to $765.00!

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The main points for the tip for Shimizu S-Pulse x Montedio Yamagata:

๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Shimizu S-Pulse in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $11.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Montedio Yamagata in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-30.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 3 matches as the home team, Shimizu S-Pulse scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 3 matches as the away team, Montedio Yamagata scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 3 matches as the home team against Montedio Yamagata, Shimizu S-Pulse scored at least 3 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Shimizu S-Pulse x Montedio Yamagata, with Shimizu S-Pulse as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 3 road matches, Montedio Yamagata has not lost any of them.
๐Ÿ‘‰ Shimizu S-Pulse has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Montedio Yamagata playing at home.

๐Ÿ“Š You can also check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Shimizu S-Pulse x Montedio Yamagata

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Summary

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Analysis from Shimizu S-Pulse x Montedio Yamagata for the Japan J-League Play-Offs – 25 of November

๐ŸŸ๏ธ Shimizu S-Pulse X Montedio Yamagata – Japan J-League Play-Offs
๐Ÿ“… 25 of November, 2023 – 04:00
๐Ÿ”ต Shimizu S-Pulse – Winning probability: 80.80% | Fair line: 1.24
โšช Tied game – Probability of tied match: 7.65% | Fair line: 13.08
๐Ÿ”ด Montedio Yamagata – Winning probability: 11.56% | Fair line: 8.65
โš– Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Shimizu S-Pulse
โšฝ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 9.00 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Shimizu S-Pulse x Montedio Yamagata right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1024961 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Shimizu S-Pulse x Montedio Yamagata

Is it worth betting on Shimizu S-Pulse?

๐Ÿ”ต Shimizu S-Pulse: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 80.8% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.53. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 810 times – profiting $429.30;
  • And would lose other 190 times – having a loss of -$190.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$239.30.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

โšช draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 7.65%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 80 times – this would give you a profit of $256.00
  • And would lose other 920 times – having a loss of -$920.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$664.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Montedio Yamagata?

๐Ÿ”ด Montedio Yamagata: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 11.56%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 120 times – profiting $480.00;
  • And would lose other 880 times – losing -$880.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$400.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Shimizu S-Pulse x Montedio Yamagata

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

โš– Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Shimizu S-Pulse
โšฝ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Shimizu S-Pulse x Montedio Yamagata

โš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Shimizu S-Pulse and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 Shimizu S-Pulse.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 Montedio Yamagata.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Shimizu S-Pulse x Montedio Yamagata

โšฝ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves