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Home Β» Predictions Β» Others Β» Sporting Covilha x Lusitania Betting tips for January 5 in Portugal Liga 3
Sunday, 05 January 2025, 11h00 Portugal Liga 3
Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha
PREDICTION No tip
Lusitania Lusitania
Don't miss this prediction!

Sporting Covilha x Lusitania Betting tips for January 5 in Portugal Liga 3

Our betting tip for Sporting Covilha x Lusitania, Sunday, 5/1/2025
πŸ“… 5/1/2025
11:00
Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha
1.91
X
3.30
Lusitania Lusitania
3.55

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Sporting Covilha x Lusitania:

πŸ‘Ž Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Sporting Covilha x Lusitania

Important information for your tip for Sporting Covilha x Lusitania:

πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Sporting Covilha in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-117.0.
πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Lusitania in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $700.0.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 Sporting Covilha matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the home team, Sporting Covilha conceded at least 2 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ It is not a good time for Sporting Covilha as home team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last home matches.

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Summary

Looking for another bookie to bet on Sporting Covilha x Lusitania?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2025, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Sporting Covilha x Lusitania:

Analysis from Sporting Covilha x Lusitania for the Portugal Liga 3 – 5 of January

🏟️ Sporting Covilha X Lusitania – Portugal Liga 3
πŸ“… 5 of January, 2025 – 11:00
πŸ”΅ Sporting Covilha – Winning probability: 52.09% | Fair line: 1.92
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 28.06% | Fair line: 3.56
πŸ”΄ Lusitania – Winning probability: 19.85% | Fair line: 5.04
βš– Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Sporting Covilha
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Sporting Covilha x Lusitania right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1242039 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Sporting Covilha x Lusitania

Is it worth betting on Sporting Covilha?

πŸ”΅ Sporting Covilha: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 52.09% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.91. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 520 times – this would give you a profit of $473.20
  • And would lose other 480 times – losing -$480.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$6.80.

Is it worth betting on draw?

βšͺ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 28.06% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 280 times – profiting $644.00;
  • And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$76.00.

Is it worth betting on Lusitania?

πŸ”΄ Lusitania: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 19.85% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.55. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 200 times – having a profit of $510.00;
  • And would lose other 800 times – losing -$800.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$290.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Sporting Covilha x Lusitania

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

βš– Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Sporting Covilha
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sporting Covilha x Lusitania

βš– Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Sporting Covilha, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Sporting Covilha.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sporting Covilha x Lusitania

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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