St Mirren x Livingston Betting tips for November 25 in Scotland Premiership

Our betting tip for St Mirren x Livingston, Saturday, 25/11/2023

📅 25/11/2023 15:00

St Mirren 1.75

X 3.45

Livingston 4.50

Our algorithm has selected this tip for St Mirren x Livingston:

🔮 St Mirren wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on St Mirren, you can win up to $875.00!

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Some important points for the tip for St Mirren x Livingston: 👉 If you had bet $100 on St Mirren in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-52.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Livingston in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 3 St Mirren matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Livingston conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 St Mirren has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Livingston playing at home. 👉 It is not a good time for Livingston as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for St Mirren x Livingston

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Analysis from St Mirren x Livingston for the Scotland Premiership – 25 of November

When the best bet on St Mirren x Livingston is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1025263 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for St Mirren x Livingston

Is betting on St Mirren worth it?

🔵 St Mirren: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 69.76% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.75. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 700 times – profiting $525.00;
• And would lose other 300 times – losing -$300.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$225.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.73% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.45. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 190 times – profiting $465.50;
• And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$344.50.

Is it worth betting on Livingston?

🔴 Livingston: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 11.51% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 120 times – profiting $420.00;
• And would have lost other 880 times – with a loss of -$880.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$460.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match St Mirren x Livingston

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 St Mirren
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for St Mirren x Livingston

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 St Mirren, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 St Mirren.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for St Mirren x Livingston

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.