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Home » Predictions » Others » Union Santa Fe x Boca Juniors Betting tips for March 6 in Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional
Wednesday, 06 March 2024, 22h15 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional
Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe
PREDICTION Union Santa Fe wins Probability 41% 1 X 2
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
ODD: @3 Don't miss this prediction!

Union Santa Fe x Boca Juniors Betting tips for March 6 in Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional

Our betting tip for Union Santa Fe x Boca Juniors, Wednesday, 6/3/2024
📅 6/3/2024
22:15
Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe
3.00
X
2.89
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
2.40

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Union Santa Fe x Boca Juniors:

🔮 Union Santa Fe wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Union Santa Fe, you can win up to $1500.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Union Santa Fe x Boca Juniors:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Union Santa Fe in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-320.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Boca Juniors in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-17.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Boca Juniors scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Union Santa Fe x Boca Juniors, with Union Santa Fe as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 Union Santa Fe has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Boca Juniors playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Union Santa Fe x Boca Juniors for the Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional – 6 of March

🏟️ Union Santa Fe X Boca Juniors – Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional
📅 6 of March, 2024 – 22:15
🔵 Union Santa Fe – Winning probability: 41.59% | Fair line: 2.4
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 28.76% | Fair line: 3.48
🔴 Boca Juniors – Winning probability: 29.65% | Fair line: 3.37
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Union Santa Fe
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 8.75 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Union Santa Fe x Boca Juniors right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1071592 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Union Santa Fe x Boca Juniors

Is it worth betting on Union Santa Fe?

🔵 Union Santa Fe: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 41.59% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 420 times – profiting $840.00;
  • And would lose other 580 times – having a loss of -$580.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$260.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.76% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.89. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $548.10
  • And would have lost other 710 times – with a loss of -$710.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$161.90.

Should you bet on Boca Juniors?

🔴 Boca Juniors: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 29.65% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 300 times – profiting $420.00;
  • And would have lost other 700 times – with a loss of -$700.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$280.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Union Santa Fe x Boca Juniors

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Union Santa Fe
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Union Santa Fe x Boca Juniors

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Union Santa Fe, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Union Santa Fe.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Union Santa Fe x Boca Juniors

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves