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Home Β» Predictions Β» Others Β» Utebo x Gernika Betting tips for November 25 in Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2
Saturday, 25 November 2023, 00h00 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2
Utebo Utebo
PREDICTION No tip
Gernika Gernika
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Utebo x Gernika Betting tips for November 25 in Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2

Our betting tip for Utebo x Gernika, Saturday, 25/11/2023
πŸ“… 25/11/2023
16:30
Utebo Utebo
1.91
X
3.15
Gernika Gernika
3.70

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Utebo x Gernika:

πŸ‘Ž Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Utebo x Gernika

The main points for the tip for Utebo x Gernika:

πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Utebo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $91.0.
πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Gernika in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 6 matches as the home team, Utebo scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 Utebo matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the home team, Utebo conceded at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 3 matches as the away team, Gernika conceded at least 2 goal(s).

πŸ“Š Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Utebo x Gernika

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Summary

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Utebo x Gernika?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Utebo x Gernika, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2023. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Utebo x Gernika for the Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2 – 25 of November

🏟️ Utebo X Gernika – Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2
πŸ“… 25 of November, 2023 – 16:30
πŸ”΅ Utebo – Winning probability: 56.10% | Fair line: 1.78
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 24.97% | Fair line: 4.0
πŸ”΄ Gernika – Winning probability: 18.93% | Fair line: 5.28
βš– Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Utebo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Utebo and Gernika.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1025263 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Utebo x Gernika

Is it worth betting on Utebo?

πŸ”΅ Utebo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 56.1% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.91. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 560 times – having a profit of $509.60;
  • And would lose other 440 times – losing -$440.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just πŸ’°$69.60 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it worth betting on draw?

βšͺ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.97% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.15. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 250 times – profiting $537.50;
  • And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$212.50.

Is betting on Gernika worth it?

πŸ”΄ Gernika: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 18.93% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $513.00;
  • And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$297.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Utebo x Gernika

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

βš– Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Utebo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Utebo x Gernika

βš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Utebo and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Utebo.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Gernika.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Utebo x Gernika

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves