Vasco da Gama x Fluminense Betting tips for December 11 in Copa do Brasil
| 📅 11/12/2025 23:00 |
 Vasco da Gama3.06 |
X 3.10 |
Fluminense  2.50 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Vasco da Gama x Fluminense:
🔮 Fluminense wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Fluminense, you can win up to $1250.00!
Some important points for the tip for Vasco da Gama x Fluminense:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Vasco da Gama in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $18.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Fluminense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-260.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Fluminense, Vasco da Gama scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Vasco da Gama conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 road matches, Fluminense has not lost any of them.
🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense?
Lets analyze the match between Vasco da Gama and Fluminense in the Copa do Brasil, which will take place at São Januário Stadium, Vascos true home. ⚽
📊 Recent statistics show that Vasco has a mixed performance at home: scored 8 goals and conceded 8 in the last 5 games at São Januário, with only 2 wins and 3 losses. Meanwhile, Fluminense has a more solid defense away from home, scoring few goals (2 in the last 5 away games) and conceding few (5 goals). The visiting team also has a lower shot average (10 vs. 16 for Vasco), but is more defensively efficient.
📰 Recent news indicates Vasco secured their place in Serie A with some ease and is focused on the Copa do Brasil semifinals against Fluminense. The club renewed Jairs contract, strengthening their midfield for the final stretch of the season. On the other hand, Fluminense is riding high after securing a direct spot in the Libertadores with their best campaign as home team in the Brasileirão — showing a confident and mentally strong team for this decisive encounter.
📈 In the recent Brazilian championship table, both teams are in different moments: Vasco has already secured their stay without immediate major pressures, while Fluminense is motivated by their good form and bigger goals ahead — which could positively influence their performance in this semifinal.
Analyzing the adjusted median odds for fair probabilities, we have approximately:
- Vasco win: ~31%
- Draw: ~30%
- Fluminense win: ~39%
Based on combined offensive/defensive stats, team news, and the home advantage for Vasco (São Januário is truly their stadium), my fair prediction indicates a slight edge to Fluminense due to their solid away defense and overall good form.
However, the final odds suggest a clear favoritism to the visitor (Fluminense) around 48% implied, versus about 31% for Vascos win — our internal model even suggests a higher favoritism to Flu (~67%), but that seems exaggerated given the reasonable balance shown by the numbers.
Therefore, my cautious betting suggestion is that there is positive value in a possible Fluminense win or draw considering their low final odds compared to the fair probabilities; I wouldnt rule out a balanced result or even a surprise due to Vascos strong home advantage.
Recommended bet: Fluminense win or draw, seeking value at current odds close to @2.1 — estimated EV above +7%, leveraging the visitors solid defense and high motivation.
Avoid heavy bets on Vascos simple win due to the high risks evidenced by recent negative stats even at home.
Analysis of Clube da Aposta model:
The model clearly indicates high value in the visitors win (~42% EV), I fully agree as it captures the current strength of the Tricolor combined with Vascos recent offensive fragilities. I only disagree with the very high odds predicted for a draw or home win by the model, which seem to underestimate the real chances given the close historical data.
Overall, I strongly support the Clube da Apostas view of a clear advantage for Flu here! 🚀
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Analysis from Vasco da Gama x Fluminense for the Copa do Brasil – 11 of December
🏟️ Vasco da Gama X Fluminense – Copa do Brasil
📅 11 of December, 2025 – 23:00
🔵 Vasco da Gama – Winning probability: 18.12% | Fair line: 5.52
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 11.94% | Fair line: 8.38
🔴 Fluminense – Winning probability: 69.94% | Fair line: 1.43
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Vasco da Gama
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Vasco da Gama and Fluminense.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1451631 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Latest news about Vasco da Gama x Fluminense
Vasco da Gama: Vasco da Gama finished the last round of the 2025 Brasileirão with a 2-0 defeat to Mirassol at São Januário, but mathematically secured their stay in Serie A for 2026 by earning 45 points, placing 12th; the team is now preparing for the decisive match against Atlético-MG this Sunday and the Copa do Brasil semi-finals against Fluminense, with training sessions at CT Moacyr Barbosa. On December 4th, the club formalized the extension of midfielder Jairs contract until December 2026, with an automatic renewal clause, while young forward Léo Jacó, top scorer of the U-20 squad with 22 goals in 2025, did not have the purchase option exercised. Under Fernando Dinizs management, Vasco was the team that participated most in blowout matches this season, with four wins by large margins and four heavy defeats, including a 5-0 loss to Atlético-MG that secured the opponents spot in the Copa Sudamericana. Historically, the club also holds the record of 9-0 over Tuna Luso in 1984, the biggest victory in Brasileirão history.
Fluminense: Fluminense secured a direct spot in the Libertadores group stage by defeating Bahia 2-0 at Maracanã, ending the 38th round of the Brazilian Championship and recording their best home campaign ever, with 46 points earned at home; the club is also preparing for the Copa do Brasil semi-finals against Vasco, scheduled for December 10 and 14, while keeping defender Nino, recently arrived from Zenit, as the main target to strengthen the squad in 2026, and celebrating Martinellis season, which solidified his best phase at Tricolor by helping secure Libertadores qualification.
Copa do Brasil table analysis for Vasco da Gama x Fluminense
No table analysis was provided for this match.
Tips for the Match Odds market for Vasco da Gama x Fluminense
Is it worth betting on Vasco da Gama?
🔵 Vasco da Gama: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.12% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.06. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 180 times – this would give you a profit of $370.80
- And would lose other 820 times – having a loss of -$820.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$449.20.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 11.94% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 120 times – profiting $252.00;
- And would lose other 880 times – having a loss of -$880.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$628.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Fluminense?
🔴 Fluminense: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 69.94% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 700 times – this would give you a profit of $1050.00
- And would have lost other 300 times – with a loss of -$300.00 because of them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$750.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Vasco da Gama x Fluminense
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Vasco da Gama
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Vasco da Gama x Fluminense
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Vasco da Gama, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Vasco da Gama.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Vasco da Gama x Fluminense
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
