Velez Sarsfield x Lanus Betting tips for November 20 in Argentina Liga Profesional

Our betting tip for Velez Sarsfield x Lanus, Wednesday, 20/11/2024

📅 20/11/2024 22:15

Velez Sarsfield 1.63

X 3.60

Lanus 5.50

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Velez Sarsfield x Lanus:

🔮 Velez Sarsfield wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Velez Sarsfield, you can win up to $815.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Velez Sarsfield x Lanus: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Velez Sarsfield in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $240.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Lanus in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-50.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Velez Sarsfield scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 Velez Sarsfield matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Lanus conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Velez Sarsfield conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Lanus.

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Analysis from Velez Sarsfield x Lanus for the Argentina Liga Profesional – 20 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Velez Sarsfield x Lanus right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1224026 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Velez Sarsfield x Lanus

Is betting on Velez Sarsfield worth it?

🔵 Velez Sarsfield: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 79.9% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.63. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 800 times – having a profit of $504.00;
• And would have lost other 200 times – with a loss of -$200.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$304.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 15.94% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 160 times – profiting $416.00;
• And would lose other 840 times – losing -$840.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$424.00.

Is it worth betting on Lanus?

🔴 Lanus: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 4.16% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 40 times – this would give you a profit of $180.00
• And would lose other 960 times – having a loss of -$960.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$780.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Velez Sarsfield x Lanus

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Velez Sarsfield
⚽ Expected goals: 2.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Velez Sarsfield x Lanus

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.25 Velez Sarsfield and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Velez Sarsfield.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Velez Sarsfield.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Velez Sarsfield x Lanus

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.25 goals.