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Home » Predictions » Verl x MSV Duisburg Betting tips for February 10 in Germany 3.Liga
Saturday, 10 February 2024, 13h00 Germany 3.Liga
Verl Verl
PREDICTION No tip
MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg
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Verl x MSV Duisburg Betting tips for February 10 in Germany 3.Liga

Our betting tip for Verl x MSV Duisburg, Saturday, 10/2/2024
📅 10/2/2024
13:00
Verl Verl
1.80
X
3.64
MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg
3.62

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Verl x MSV Duisburg:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Verl x MSV Duisburg

Some important points for the tip for Verl x MSV Duisburg:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Verl in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-66.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on MSV Duisburg in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, MSV Duisburg scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against MSV Duisburg, Verl scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, MSV Duisburg conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Summary

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Analysis from Verl x MSV Duisburg for the Germany 3.Liga – 10 of February

🏟️ Verl X MSV Duisburg – Germany 3.Liga
📅 10 of February, 2024 – 13:00
🔵 Verl – Winning probability: 54.74% | Fair line: 1.83
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 26.00% | Fair line: 3.85
🔴 MSV Duisburg – Winning probability: 19.26% | Fair line: 5.19
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Verl
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Verl x MSV Duisburg right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1054913 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Verl x MSV Duisburg

Should you bet on Verl?

🔵 Verl: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 54.74% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.80. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 550 times – having a profit of $440.00;
  • And would lose other 450 times – having a loss of -$450.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$10.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it worth betting on draw?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.0%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.64. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $686.40;
  • And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$53.60.

Is betting on MSV Duisburg worth it?

🔴 MSV Duisburg: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 19.26%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.62. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 190 times – profiting $497.80;
  • And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$312.20.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Verl x MSV Duisburg

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Verl
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Verl x MSV Duisburg

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Verl and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Verl.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Verl.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Verl x MSV Duisburg

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves