Virtus Ciserano Bergamo x Pavia Betting tips for December 14 in Italy Serie D

Our betting tip for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo x Pavia, Sunday, 14/12/2025

📅 14/12/2025 13:30

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2.28

X 3.29

Pavia 2.79

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo x Pavia:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo x Pavia

The main points for the tip for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo x Pavia:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Virtus Ciserano Bergamo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $203.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Pavia in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scored at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Virtus Ciserano Bergamo x Pavia for the Italy Serie D – 14 of December

When the best bet on Virtus Ciserano Bergamo x Pavia is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1452657 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo x Pavia

Should you bet on Virtus Ciserano Bergamo?

🔵 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 43.92% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.28. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 440 times – this would give you a profit of $563.20
• And would lose other 560 times – having a loss of -$560.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$3.20. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 25.78% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.29. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 260 times – this would give you a profit of $595.40
• And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$144.60.

Should you bet on Pavia?

🔴 Pavia: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.3% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.79. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 300 times – this would give you a profit of $537.00
• And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$163.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Virtus Ciserano Bergamo x Pavia

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo x Pavia

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo x Pavia

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.